Warm-up5 min
How sure are you?
The idea. Knowing how sure you are is a different skill from being right.
- 1
Two people both say “about twenty metres.” One has thrown a hundred paper planes. One has never thrown any.
- 2
Same answer. Not the same amount of knowing.
- 3
So there are two questions, always: what do you think, and how much would you bet on it.
- 4
Three levels is enough: sure · fairly sure · just guessing. Say which one you are at.
- 5
The useful part is not looking clever. It is that “just guessing” tells you exactly where to go and check.
Question 1 · Sort
Sort these into sure / fairly sure / just guessing: how many legs a spider has · how many pages are in the book nearest to you · how far a paper airplane can fly.
There is no single right sort — what matters is the reason. If everything landed in “sure”: count the spider’s legs in your head, you can picture it. Now picture the pages. You cannot, can you? That is the difference between the two piles.
Question 2 · Binary
You are “just guessing” about something. What is that a good reason to do?
Question 3 · Free choice + reason
Something you are fairly sure about — not certain. What would make you sure?
For the parent — Parent note
What we taught. Three levels of certainty, said out loud.
Why this first. The main conundrum asks for a number. Without this session, a child gives a number with no idea how much to trust it — which is exactly what a chatbot does.
What to listen for. Whether “just guessing” arrives without embarrassment. That is the goal.
A phrase worth borrowing at home. “How sure — sure, fairly sure, or guessing?”